The president-elect, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, last week played a fast one on political watchers when he said that he had no preferred candidate for the number three position in the country, the Senate Presidency. Tinubu, who spoke at a meeting with the newly elected federal lawmakers on the platform of his party, the ruling All Progressive Congress, APC, is of the view that the leadership of the party would come up with appropriate guidelines on who should get what when it was time to pick principal officers of the 10th National Assembly. Tinubu, who spoke through the vice president-elect, Kashim Shettima, however told the incoming lawmakers to go back to their states and ensure victory for the APC in the gubernatorial and House of Assembly elections.
The National Chairman of the Party, Adamu Abdullahi, who chaired the meeting, held inside the Banquet Hall of the State House, also ruled out the possibility of picking the principal officers based on religion or tribe. He is however not happy that jostling for the plum job has begun before the party gave the go-ahead and that their campaign slogan has a tinge of ethnicity and religion. ‘The news media, especially the social media, are full of speculations of some of you jostling for leadership positions in the National Assembly. This is not unusual. People have the right to struggle for positions of leadership for which they believe they are eminently qualified. But we, in the National Working Committee of the party are not comfortable with the tone adopted by those who are seeking those offices. Those offices are not tribal or sectional rights, and must not be so portrayed.
He continued: “It may be good to start early, but it is wiser to be patient. Some of you may recall what happened to the party and the National Assembly in 2015 when some members of the national legislature chose not to wait for the decision of the President and the party in sharing those offices. It created bad blood within the party and between the Executive and the Legislature. I urge us not to regress”.
The party’s national Chairman added that the president-elect and the party leadership would make appropriate consultations in working out a formula for sharing those offices. “I assure you that whatever sharing formula the party and the President-elect arrive at will be fair, just, equitable, and satisfy the majority of our members,” he added.
Tinubu’s remarks that he has no preferred candidate for the job should however be taken with a pinch of salt. An astute politician with years of experience in politics like Tinubu would not leave his flanks open by not showing interest in who heads the National Assembly. He has, however, spoken the way a politician should, and will expect the party, alongside the President-elect to come up with a sharing formula that would take care of the interests of all geo-political zones in the country.
With the Governorship and House of Assembly elections out of the way, it is time for the party to take stock and ‘share’ juicy positions. Both Tinubu and the National Working Committee of the party, headed by Adamu, should be mindful of who gets what if they hope to prevent a repeat of what Adamu alluded to in 2015. In that year, the APC that had just been elected to power was ‘played’ by Senator Bukola Saraki to become the Senate President against the wish of the party’s leadership.
Issues that will determine who gets what in the 10th National Assembly are delicate issues at the core of Nigeria’s equation, which has to do with ethnicity and religion. With the President-elect coming from the South West and the Vice President-elect emerging from the Northwest, many Nigerians are expecting the Senate President to go to the South East in other to give a sense of belonging to our brothers from the eastern zone. But some Nigerians, especially politicians from other geo-political zones are not comfortable with that argument. They believe, and rightly too, that the zone contributed little or nothing to the emergence of Tinubu as president-elect and should not be so rewarded. Indeed, Tinubu secured only 127,605 votes out of a total of 2.187,599 votes cast in the Southeast. This represents a meagre 5.8 per cent of the entire votes in the region. Despite the fact that the region produced six senators in 2023 as against one in the outgoing dispensation, many believe that the votes garnered by the party during the presidential election do not bode well for the party rewarding the zone with the number three job.
Two ranking senators from the zone – Orji Uzor Kalu from Abia State, and Osita Izunaso from Imo State, are back in the red chamber and are eligible to vie for the job. Outgoing Governor Dave Umahi of Ebonyi state is also going to the senate and has shown interest in the office, but being a first-term senator may hinder his ambition.
No matter how plausible the argument for a southeast Senate President may sound, other regions, particularly the South-South, the North East, and the North Central, could lay claim to the office as they garnered more votes for the president-elect and the party than the Southeast. The South-south zone gave Tinubu 799.957 votes, a total of 29.1 per cent of the total votes cast in the region. Also, the North West gave Tinubu 2.652.235 votes which represent 41 per cent of the votes cast in the region.
In a similar vein, North Central supplied 1.760.793 votes for Tinubu which stood at 41.3 per cent of the entire votes cast in the region. This is where the party may be heading for trouble as the possibility of another Muslim emerging as Senate President may become another bitter pill to swallow for most Nigerians if the position is zoned to the North East. Many of those canvassing that line of argument for the zone to clinch the job based their point on the fact that Tinubu would not have emerged as President-elect without the votes of the region. Those in support of the Southeast having the job are saying that there is a need for Tinubu to run an all-inclusive government and that there is a need to douse tension by supporting any senator from the South East to get the post. If this is done, a Christian is likely to emerge, as both Kalu and Izunaso are strong Christians. While Kalu has not hidden his desire for the job and has been actively working toward its actualization, Izunaso is yet to decide on the issue.
But if the party chooses the South-South, Godswill Akpabio, former Governor of Akwa Ibom State, and a ranking Senator, stands shoulder high above others. He has also reportedly been reaching out to senators-elect on his ambition. A former minority leader of the senate, Akpabio, as a first-time elected lawmaker in the eighth senate, displaced a ranking Senator, James Manager, to become a principal officer, the position he held until he defected to APC during Bukola Saraki’s tenure as Senate President. Akpabio is envisaging that the position would be zoned to the South-south geo-political zone where he comes from as well as the fact that the zone delivered more votes to the President-elect in the presidential election. Akpabio is also very close to Bola Tinubu.
If the zone eventually gets the party’s nod to field the position, Akpabio will have a very tough battle with the former Governor of Edo State and former National Chairman of the Party, Adams Oshiomhole. Though not a ranking senator with no legislative experience, Oshiomhole’s entrance into the race is surprising to keen watchers of the political game playing out in the National Assembly. Those campaigning for him are of the view that the red chamber does not specifically state that only ranking Senators can be Senate President, making Oshiomhole eminently qualified for the position. Indeed, those campaigning for him believe Tinubu would be more comfortable working with him than anyone else among the current frontrunners because of their age-long relationship and partnership. This is true, as Oshiomhole would not rock Tinubu’s presidential boat. Tinubu is very good at using his clout to get his way on most issues. Since the issue of preference for ranking senators in relation to principal offices is a matter of tradition rather than law, the President-elect may double down on having Oshiomhole as Senate President.
The outgoing Governor of Ebonyi State, David Umahi, is one of the first-term Senators-elect jostling to be Senate President from the South East geopolitical zone, banking on the possibility that the office would be taken to the East. Umahi, against all odds, defected to the APC in his bid to contest the presidential ticket of the party, but later stood down.
While the Southeast and South-south could lay claim to the Senate Presidency, other politicians from other zones have also shown interest in the race and are making their intention known to their colleagues. Leading the pack is the outgoing senate President, Ahmed Lawan, from Yobe state in the Northeast. Despite the fact that the Vice President-elect comes from the same zone, Lawan has continued to carry on his campaign in the hope that the position would be zoned to his area.
In the same boat with Lawan is Senator Barau Jibrin, the current Chairman of the Senate Committee on Appropriation. The soft-spoken and easy-going politician displayed his influence and strength in Kano politics when he won his election on the platform of the APC in the Kano Central Senatorial District.
Another aspiring candidate for the office of the Senate President in the 10th National Assembly is a former governor of Zamfara State, Abdulaziz Yari, who lost the opportunity of becoming a Senator in the 9th National Assembly, because of a landmark Supreme Court verdict, which sacked all elected politicians on the platform of the APC following a face-off between his faction and that of Senator Kabiru Marafa.
The number of female senators dropped from six to three and this should worry advocates of gender equality. The three female senators are also representing three different political parties. While Banigo Ipalibo Harry will be representing Rivers state PDP in the Senate, Ireti Kingibe will be on the floor of the red chamber flying the banner of the Labour Party in the FCT. Idiat Adebule, a former Deputy governor in Lagos State will fly the banner of the APC in the Senate.
With the APC producing majority of the senators so far, it should not be a problem for the party pushing its policies across. That is, if such policies resonate with their colleagues and are policies that would benefit the generality of Nigerians. Already, out of the 98 seats so far declared by INEC, APC has won 54 seats while the Peoples Democratic Party has 27 seats. Others are Labour Party with six seats, New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) with two seats, Social Democratic Party (SDP) with two seats, while the Young Progressives Party (YPP) and the All-Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) have one seat each.
In the coming days, the real jostling for the number three position in Nigeria will gain momentum. Would the Southeast or the South-south get the nod? Only time will tell.
See you next week.