With the 2023 elections commencing in less than 4 weeks, our team of researchers have released an analysis of the eventual outcome of the presidential election, The study which attempts to give insights into the voters’ preference profile across the country was painstakingly conducted over a 6-month period and aims to reveal the burning issues that will determine the outcome of this year’s election.

Ahead of the coming 2023 Presidential elections, a recent nationwide opinion poll conducted by Nigerian Human Rights Community, NHRC in January, 2023 has revealed that the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) , Bola Ahmed Tinubu holds a magnificent lead and is on course to win the 2023 general elections.

The Polls also confirm a two-horse race for the second position between Alh. Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) while Senator. Rabiu Kwankwaso came a distant fourth as all other contestants together scored an insignificant total.

It is worth noting that Tinubu’s lead is sizable but not unassailable in Kebbi, Bauchi, Katsina, Plateau and River States because the largest concentration of Undecided voters reside in these states and there is a rising disaffection with the ruling party in the states.Therefore, these states are battlegrounds yet to be conquered.

Methodology

The study had a sample of 19,365 respondents from across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, which was aimed at investigating the feelings of voters across party lines towards the 2023 general election. The data collection and analysis focused on registered party members with PVC, which comprises men, women,youths & People living with disabilities.

Questionnaires were administered by our trained field interviewers across the country in 3 major languages namely; Hausa, Igbo, and Yoruba with our experienced field supervisors overseeing and ensuring the integrity of the data collection process. The responses were coded and analyzed to draw meaning using statistical software.

To get the truest reflection of the people’s opinions, Digital reasoning was professional and objective in conducting this exercise. Respondents were selected from each of the 36 states including the FCT. A total of 19, 365 questionnaires were administered in all the LGAs of the federation as shown below:

Geopolitical Zone	States	Number of LGAs	Questionnaires Distributed
North Central	FCT-Abuja	6	765
Benue	23	489
Kogi	21	505
Kwara	16	503
Nasarawa	13	503
Niger	25	498
Plateau	17	512
North East	Adamawa	21	506
Bauchi	20	555
Borno	27	404
Gombe	11	479
Taraba	16	532
Yobe	17	498
North West	Jigawa	27	519
Kaduna	23	605
Kano	21	614
Katsina	34	513
Kebbi	21	518
Sokoto	23	598
Zamfara	14	489
South East	Abia	17	507
Anambra	21	471
Ebonyi	12	413
Enugu	17	575
Imo	27	423
South South	Akwa Ibom	31	576
Bayelsa	8	401
Cross River	18	576
Delta	25	593
Edo	18	555
Rivers	23	543
South West	Ekiti	16	509
Lagos	20	632
Ogun	20	487
Ondo	18	505
Osun	30	489
Oyo	33	505
Total	37	774	19365

Table 1: Distribution of Respondents by states

Geopolitical Zones	Questionnaires distributed by Zones
North Central	3775
North East	2974
North West	3856
South East	2389
South South	3244
South West	3127
Total	19365

Table 2: Distribution of Respondents by Geopolitical Zones

Demographics of Respondents

Figure 1: Showing the Age distribution of Respondents.

Figure 2: Showing the distribution by gender of Respondents.

Figure 3.0: Employment Status of respondents

An Unbiased sampling technique was utilized to ensure that the distribution of the ultimate sampling unit reflects the broad demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the entire country (i.e., civil servants, Traders/Businessmen(women), Farmers, Women, and Youths). As shown in figure 1.0, 45% of the respondents are young (18- 35 years), 37% are middle aged (36-55 years) and 18% are elderly (56 years and above). Additionally, the survey is gender inclusive with 61% of the respondents as Male while 39% are of the female gender as shown in figure 2.0. Lastly, Figure 3.0 reveals that 29% of the respondents are Traders or into Business, 21% are civil servants across all sectors while 21% are unemployed as at the time of this survey, Likewise, 13% are farmers and 12% are students.

Analysis:

The data collected were analyzed using the statistical package for social services (SPSS) Version 25 software to ensure the accuracy and fidelity of the results. Findings from the Work across the length and breadth of the Country are presented in two broad sections (aggregated and Disaggregated by Zone and state) for easy comprehension.

Findings: Results and Discussions

From a socio-economics standpoint, religion, ethnicity, Insecurity, Inflation, Rising poverty and unemployment will be the determining factors during the February 25th presidential elections. While party loyalty, candidate integrity, political will, and track record will dominate the political reasons for voting. In addition, Social media, mobile communications, and, INEC’s decision to embrace the use of technology will create more awareness and influence votevoters’isions, while also curbing vote rigging and electoral violence.

A look at the Forecast: General Outlook

Map Showing the expected distribution of states to be won by presidential candidates

The electoral map was deduced after careful consideration of the respondents’ views on religion, ethnicity, party loyalty, and integrity of the candidates. Respondents from the Northwest, North East & some North Central states indicated their willingness to vote based on party loyalty and religion with APC enjoying more party loyalists within a Muslim-dominated population. The Southwestern states are likely to vote based on historical factors that favor the APC Presidential candidate, being a former Lagos State Governor with far reaching network and consistent political activities since 1991, grassroots campaign of the APC, incumbency factor of the APC controlled State Governments in the South West, party loyalty and ethnicity which will equally favor the APC. The Labour Party will enjoy an overwhelming majority in the South East due to ethnicity and religious sentiment, while states like Plateau and in the North Central might align with these sentiments to register sizeable votes for the Labour Party on the basis of religion. The study foresees the PDP maintaining significant presence in its traditional areas of the South-South and the two North Eastern states of Adamawa and Taraba while getting significant percentages in most Northwester and North eastern states. Kebbi, Katsina, Bauchi, Plateau, and Rivers will be battleground states due to internal party wranglings as such cannot be allocated to any party. The APC, PDP and LP are expected to contend in Rivers State. NNPP seems to enjoy an overwhelming popularity in Kano, the home state of Kwankwanzo in addition to some level of support across the Northwest region. The NNPP will however contend with the ruling APC in Kano State.

From the results, 5 States representing 14% of the 36 States and FCT are Gray areas that will be determined by local political gladiators, Voter turnouts and ability of leading candidates to leverage & lobby political structures within them.

Figure 4.0: Graphic illustration showing the states expected to be won by Presidential candidates

Disaggregates by States

Figure 5.0: Expected states to be won by presidential candidates in the South East.

As seen in Figure 5.0 above, Peter Obi of the Labour Party appears to lead in all the southeastern states with over 68% of the votes cast from each of the states. 92% of respondents from Anambara state choose Peter Obi as a preferred candidate while 85% and 79% of respondents from Abia & Enugu Imo states respectively also prefer his candidacy to other aspirants. However, in Imo and Ebonyi states, where he scored the least, only 70% and 68% of respondents chose him respectively, the drop in value can be attributed to the presence of APC incumbent governors in those states.

Figure 6.0: Expected states to be won by presidential candidates in the South South.

PDP seems to retain a majority of its voting bloc in the south-south geopolitical zone as seen in figure 6.0 where it is expected that its candidate wins at least 4 of the 6 states in that region. Delta where the vice-presidential candidate of the PDP hails from leads the pack with 70% while Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa follow suit with 65% each while there is only an insignificant but assailable lead between PDP and APC in Edo state. The candidate of the APC is expected to lead in CrossRiver largely due to the support of the incumbent Governor and the respondents’ party affiliation. Due to the Neutral stands of Gov. Wike of Porthacourt, River state is too close to call as both LP and PDP have an equal share in the state while the APC comes third.

Figure 6.0: Expected states to be won by presidential candidates in the South West

From Figure 6.0 it can be deduced that the Bola Tinubu is the preferred candidate in the South West. This is largely due to many factors including but not limited to the support of the business class, artisans, the grassroots campaigns, pro-democracy and civil society groups, his historic political influences dating back to his era as a Senator under the platform of the Social Democratic Party, SDP, his involvement in pro-democracy campaigns, and the fact that he is from that region and has the backing many Pan Yoruba socio-cultural groups including but not limited to the Afenifere Renewal Group, ARG. The backing of Peter Obi by older Afenifere group and support for MrObi appears no to offer any paradigm shift in the voting patter of the South West Region. Many respondents did not see the issue of Muslim-Muslim ticket as a contending issue in the South West States.

APC is expected to score at least 70% in all the southwestern states, while PDP will come distant second in Ogun and Osun with 11% and 13% respectively. Due to the large presence of Igbo voters in Lagos, the LP candidate is projected to come second with 20% while coming distant second in Ekiti, Ondo and Oyo States with at least 10% votes from all states respectively

Figure 7.0: Expected states to be won by presidential candidates in the North Central

From Figure 7.0, the presidential candidate of the APC leads in 4 out of the 7 Middle belt countries with 56% of the respondents in Kogi preferring him to others while 36% are standing behind the PDP with LP coming third by several miles, Similar outing is expected in Kwara, Nassarawa and Niger where it is projected that the APC candidate will lead his closest revival with at least 15% gap. Labour party is projected to lead in Benue and FCT with at least 18% gap, APC and PDP expected to come second in Benue and Abuja respectively. Plateau state is too close to call as all leading presidential candidates lays a claim to 33% of the votes each, this is a clear indication that the votes from the state can be won by any of the candidates.

Figure 8.0: Expected states to be won by presidential candidates in the North West

The North Central is known to be the battle field for both APC and PDP as both states have been governed by candidates from both parties. Though the APC candidate has a slight lead in the region, figure 8.0 shows that the lead is just insignificant as PDP is closely behind. APC leads in Zamfara, Jigawa and Kaduna, with 57%, 48% and 40% of the respondents votes respectively, however, PDP is tightly behind in each of the states with 39% in Zamfara, 41% in Jigawa and 35% in Kaduna states while the Labour party is expected to come third in Kaduna states largely due to the southern Kaduna bloc votes.

The Kwankwasia movement headquartered in Kano state is a major factor why the NNPP candidate was voted by 45% of respondents in Kano state, APC and PDP comes second and third respectively with 32% and 21% of total vote cast.

Kebbi and Katsina states are too close to call with candidates from APC and PDP been preferred almost equally in the states.

Figure 9.0: Expected states to be won by presidential candidates in the North East.

Figure 9.0 reveals that 65% of respondents in the Adamawa state are rooting for the PDP, in second comes APC with 25% of the vote while NNPP and LP received 5% each in the polls. The PDP Presidential candidate is from Adamawa State.

In Taraba, a predominant PDP state, 41% of respondents are tilting towards the PDP while 30% are solidly behind the APC, NNPP and LP comes third and fourth with 15% and !4% of votes respectively. The ancestral home of the vice-presidential candidate of the APC, Kashim Shettima comes to play in the choice of respondents from Borno and Yobe states. 90% in Borno state and 70% in Yobe, APC leads other parties, in the second position comes PDP with 7% in Borno and 25% in Yobe states. Respondents in Bornu State cite the influence of the State Governor, Prof Babagana Zulum as another factor. Likewise in Gombe, The APC is expected to win the state with 52% of respondents opting for the party while 36% are for the PDP, LP and NNPP are in a two horse race for third and fourth respectively

Bauchi is a battleground where victory for any of the political party is too close to call as both APC and PDP shares similar pull and force with each scoring 44% each, in third comes Kwankwaso with 10% of the votes

PATHWAY TO TRIUMPH

Pathway to Triumph: Bola Ahmed Tinubu

Figure 10: Map showing expected states to be won – Bola Tinubu

Brief:

It is safe to predict the Bola Tinubu leads comfortably in Borno, Cross River, Ekiti, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nassarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun , Oyo, Yobe and, Zamfara States.
He holds a strong lead in his state of origin (Lagos) that of his Vice Presidential candidate respectively (Bornu).
He has considerable support in states where the Incumbent governor is a member of the APC.
He holds a slight advantage in Kaduna where Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar are jostling for the second position.
Muslim Men and Women of Yoruba extract favor his candidacy while he also has the backing of majority of Muslims in the North
It is expected that he comfortably leads in Cross River State as a result of the broad-based Voter support the Cross River state governor has within this State.
A comfortable lead is therefore predicted for the APC presidential Candidate in the aftermath of the 2023 general election as he leads the poll in 17 (46%) out of 37 States of the federation.

Pathway to Triumph: Atiku Abubakar

Figure 11: Map showing expected states to be won – Atiku Abubakar

Brief:

He currently leads in Sokoto, Adamawa, Taraba, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Delta and Edo states representing 19% of the coverage.
The Biggest Disadvantage at the moment is the presence of NNPP Candidate in the North and Labour Party Candidate in the East.
Voters Attitude in traditional PDP states of the southern region appears to have changed as they largely lean towards the Labour Party
Internal Party wrangling is responsible for the undecided voting block of River state.

Pathway to Triumph: Peter Obi

Figure 12: Map showing expected states to be won – Peter Obi

Brief:

He currently holds a comfortable lead in the Majority of the Southeastern states, Benue state and the FCT.
Second in Lagos and in some South South states.
Has insignificant presence in the majority of the Northeastern and Northwestern states especially amongst the Muslims.
The disposition of Rivers state governor may favor him REMOVE
Currently leads in 19% (7 states) and holds advantage in the southern states when compared to PDP and NNPP candidates

Pathway to Triumph: Rabiu Kwankwaso

Figure 13: Map showing expected states to be won – Rabiu Kwankwaso

Brief:

Kwankwaso is winning outrightly in Kano state.
Has an advantage in Bauchi state?
However, Kwankwaso’s possible votes in the North are been split by PDP’s Presidential candidate and APC’s Vice-presidential Candidate.

Pathway to Triumph: Too close to call

Figure 14: Map showing expected states to be won – Gray States

Brief:

Kebbi, Katsina, Plateau, Bauchi, and Rivers which represent 14% of the coverage may decide the outcome of the presidential electionsas none of the candidates has a grip on the votes.
These are battlegrounds for the APC and PDP while the LP might be of advantage in River states.
Large proportion of voters in these states are undecided, therefore last minute campaigns and mobilization are key in these areas.

Candidates	Expected State to Win
Bola Ahmed Tinubu	Borno, Cross River, Ekiti, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara Lagos, Nassarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun Oyo, Yobe, Zamfara
Atiku Abubakar	Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Delta, , Taraba, Edo,
Peter Obi	Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi,Enugu, Federal Capital Territory, Imo, Benue
Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso	Kano
Too Close to Call	Bauchi, Kebbi, Rivers, Plateau, Katsina

Respondent’s Party Inclination – Nationwide

Figure 15.0: Party Inclination of Respondents

Figure 15.0 shows the overall proportion of respondents that are not members of political parties but have soft spots for certain political parties. 35% of respondents lean towards the APC, followed by PDP with 30%, LP comes third with 28%, while NNPP comes a distant fourth with 4%. 3% of the respondents are sympathetic towards other political parties.

Respondent’s Party Inclination – South East

Figure 15.1 Party Inclination of Respondents from the south easterngeopolitical zone

Respondent’s Party Inclination – South South

Figure 15.2 Party Inclination of Respondents from the South Southern geopolitical zone

Respondent’s Party Inclination – South West

Figure 15.3 Party Inclination of Respondents from the South Western geopolitical zone

Respondent’s Party Inclination – North Central

Figure 15.4 Party Inclination of Respondents from the North Central geopolitical zone

Respondent’s Party Inclination – North West

Figure 15.5 Party Inclination of Respondents from the North Western geopolitical zone

Respondent’s Party Inclination – North East

Figure 15.6 Party Inclination of Respondents from the North Estern geopolitical zone

Respondents who are Card-Carrying Members of a Political Members

Figure 16.0: Respondents with Valid Party Membership

Figure 16.0 shows that of the 19,365 respondents interviewed, only 44% are affiliated to a political party, while 56% do not belong to any political party.

Figure 17.0: Respondents Party Membership distribution

Figure 17.0 Shows that, out of the respondents which belong to a political party, 39% are registered with the APC, 33% belong to the PDP while 18% and 7% belong to the LP and NNPP respectively. 3% of respondents belong to other political parties

Motivations for Party Support

Figure 18.0: Respondents’ major reasons for supporting the political party of choice

39% of respondents indicated that Party popularity around their locations is the prominent reason for being affiliated with a political party as shown in Figure 18.0. The Favorable Programs come second with 33% while Positive Ideology ranks third as a reason for the respondents to support any political party.

Understanding Party Ideology

Figure 19.0: Accessing understanding of Party Ideology

Figure 19.0 reveals that 46% of respondents are aware and understand the Ideology of the political party they support while 42% don’t have a cognitive understanding of what the ideologies of their parties are. However, 12% of the respondents feel indifferent about knowledge of the party Manifesto.

Factors Affecting Voting Patterns – Nationwide

Figure 20.0: Factors Influencing Voting Pattern

Figure 20.0 reveals that the across the nation, the performance of the incumbent administration is the most prominent factor that may influence voters’ behavior in the forthcoming election with 39% of respondents highlighting it as an impacting issue. Furthermore, 26% of respondents feel the state of insecurity is another source of concern while 21% see unemployment as a reason big enough to influence their voting attitude. A minority 2% are influenced to vote by the need for change in government.

Factors Affecting Voting Patterns – South East

Figure 20.1: Factors Influencing Voting Pattern -SE

Factors Affecting Voting Patterns – South South

Figure 20.2: Factors Influencing Voting Pattern -SS

Factors Affecting Voting Patterns – South West

Figure 20.3: Factors Influencing Voting Pattern -SW

Factors Affecting Voting Patterns – North Central

Figure 20.4: Factors Influencing Voting Pattern -NC

Factors Affecting Voting Patterns – NorthWest

Figure 20.5: Factors Influencing Voting Pattern -NW

Factors Affecting Voting Patterns – North East Zone

Figure 20.6: Factors Influencing Voting Pattern -NE

Accessing Presidential Candidates

Figure 21.0: Basis for assessing a candidate

36% of respondents assess the presidential candidates based on information seen on TV while 27% and 17% assess a candidate based on the information garnered on social media and Newspaper articles respectively. The political history of the candidate accounts for 12% while only 6% attends events where the candidate addresses people before assessing him/her.

Factors that would influence the voting decision of Respondents

Figure 22.0: Preferred Character Trait of Presidential Candidates

Figure 22.0 shows that Integrity Is the most preferred character traits that 28% respondents seek in a presidential candidate, while Patriotism to Nigeria and Track record / experience ranks second and third respectively with 21% and 18% respectively. Candidate’s stand on corruption and his/her Political Agenda influences 16% and 15% of the respondents in choosing a presidential candidate respectively.

Factors that would influence the voting decision of Respondents – South East

Figure 22.1: Factors That Would Influence the Voting Decision -SE

Factors that would influence the voting decision of Respondents – South South

Figure 22.2; Factors That Would Influence theVoting Decision -SS

Factors that would influence the voting decision of Respondents – South West

Figure 22.3: Factors That Would Influence the Voting Decision -SW

Factors that would influence the voting decision of Respondents – North Central

Figure 22.4: Factors That Would Influence the Voting Decision -NC

Factors that would influence the voting decision of Respondents – North West

Figure 22.5: Factors That Would Influence the Voting Decision -NW

Factors that would influence the voting decision of Respondents – North East

Figure 22.6: Factors That Would Influence the Voting Decision -NE

Reservations towards forthcoming Elections – Nationwide

Figure 23.0 Respondents’ Fears towards the forthcoming election

Figure 23.0 shows that the use of BVAS especially in remote areas is generating fears amongst possible voters. With 31%, this constitutes the highest fear amongst respondents as the 2023 general election approaches. The Fear of the electoral process being manipulated by INEC comes second with 25%, this perhaps shows the level of mistrust in the electoral umpire and the need for INEC to Orient and reassure possible voters of a transparent process, while Election-related violence and Vote Buying take the third and fourth spot with 24% and 18% respectively.

Reservations towards forthcoming Elections – South East

Figure 23.1: Respondents concerns towards the forth coming election – South East

Reservations towards forthcoming Elections – South South

Figure 23.2: Respondents Concerns towards the Forth Coming Election -SS

Reservations towards forthcoming Elections – South West

Figure 23.3:Respondents Concerns towards the Forth Coming Election -SW

Reservations towards forthcoming Elections – North Central

Figure 23.4: Respondents Concerns towards the Forth Coming Election -NC

Reservations towards forthcoming Elections – North West

Figure 23.5: Respondents Concerns towards the Forth Coming Election -NW

Reservations towards forthcoming Elections – North East

Figure 23.6: Respondents Concerns towards the Forth Coming Election -NE

Respondent’s Ability and Willingness to Vote

Figure 24.0: Registration status of Respondents

Figure 24. 0 reveals that 87% of the respondents interviewed are registered with their PVCs linked to their current address, and only 13% of the respondents don’t either have PVC or are not registered to vote within their locality.

Figure 25.0: Willingness to vote

As shown in figure 25.0, 69% of the respondents have made up their mind to vote in the 2023 presidential election while 13% are likely to vote. 7% are indecisive and 8% are certain not to vote. If extrapolated, this indicates that there will possibly be a large voter turnout during the 2023 presidential election.

Summary: Preferred Presidential Candidates

Figure 26.0: Presidential Candidates respondents are likely to Vote For.

Figure 26.0 above gives a picture of the possible outcome of the 2023 presidential election especially when factors described in this research are taken into cognizance. Out of the 19365 respondents interviewed, 7940 (41%) are voting for the candidate of the APC while 5035 (26%), 4067 (21%), and 1743 (9%) are voting for the candidates of PDP, LP, and NNPP respectively. 1162 (6%) of the respondents are rooting for the other candidates.

Conclusion

The detailed analysis in this work and the heterogenous nature of respondents, there is an indication that the forthcoming Presidential Elections is between 3 major candidates of the APC, PDP, and LP parties with Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC as the most dominant and widely accepted candidate followed by Atiku Abubakar (PDP) and Peter Obi (LP) It is worthy of note however that the gray states (Rivers, Kebbi, Bauchi, Plateau, and Katsina) which house largely undecided voters and indifferent incumbent governors who are too close to call could sway the outcome in favor of the presidential candidate who is able to harness their voting strength.

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