The saying that in politics, ‘there is no permanent friend but permanent interests’, fits perfectly into Nigeria’s politics of accommodation especially since the end of the Second Republic when ideology and principle to a very high extent shaped Nigeria’s political evolution and alignments.
Then members of notable families belong to different political parties but still retain their family bond out of politics.
An example of these was the Shitta-Bey family. Both late Senator Rasheed Shitta -Bey and Sikiru Shitta-Bey belonged to different political parties .
But in today’s Nigeria,it is becoming crystal clear that political affiliations, identifications and alliances are borne out more of personal interests rather than the national interest and the good of all or the society.
Your friend today may be your arch enemy tomorrow so far his goal in politics offends yours.
El Rufai, a former governor of Kaduna State and one- time Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, under President Olusegun Obasanjo and Vice President Atiku Abubakar is a case study.
When the former fell out with him, he like Obasanjo called Atiku unprintable names….all in an attempt to cut his former boss to size.
Today, he has become not only the most controversial politician, second only to FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike, but he appears to carry a bigger dose of hatred for those he has dined and wined with simply because his ambition was halted by his past as governor of the most volatile state in Nigeria between 2015 and 2023.
A group of Politicians in the North under the aegis of Northern Conscience Movement (NCM) in a statement at the weekend, expressed concerns over the recent shift in political stance by El Rufai.
This change they alluded “has sparked discussions about the integrity and consistency of political alliances in Nigeria.”
In a statement signed by one Lawal Nuhu Ahmed, Coordinator of the NCM, the group questioned the authenticity of El-Rufai’s newfound admiration for Abubakar, referencing his previous criticisms of the former vice president.
The statement also noted the timing of this shift, highlighting El-Rufai’s recent political challenges, including his fallout with President Bola Tinubu as a result of Senate’s rejection of his ministerial nomination.
However, El Rufai’s change of political bed- fellow is not particularly new in Nigeria’s fledgling democracy. Rather, what is new and interesting is the grand plot by a club of opponents to the present regime led by President Bola Tinubu to drag Muhammadu Buhari, immediate past president of the country, into the club of opposition. This is is interesting.
It is interesting because two months ago, same Buhari had told the nation that he remains in All Progressives Congress, APC, and will not jump ship to destroy the party that gave him the platform to realise his ambition.
Buhari spoke after El Rufai had told the nation that Buhari was in the know of his decision to leave APC for the Social Democratic Party, SDP.
Interestingly, El -Rufai’s visit to Buhari in company of Atiku, his former political foe, last week also came after Atiku, Obi and others visited former President Olusegun Obasanjo in Abeokuta obviously to recruit him for the 2027 battle.
Though, as usual Obasanjo also a known critic of Tinubu encouraged them to form a coalition, he fell short of being the spring board for such in view of his obviously limited political and electoral value.
Now, with the latest visit to Buhari in Kaduna, in company of Atiku with former Sokoto state Governor and one- time Speaker, Aminu Tambuwal, it is quite clear that a northern coalition is being surreptitiously cobbled together to fight Tinubu’s second term bid, using Buhari’s messianic appeal as a spring board .
If this is true, would Tambuwal now in his late 50s and who has never hidden his presidential ambition again in 2027 jettison it for Atiku, a veteran of presidential contests? He did it for Atiku in 2023.
Would he willingly jettison his ambition again for Atiku who would be 81 by 2027?
Sule Lamido, a former Jigawa state governor, it would be recalled, had openly told El Rufai of his decision not to be part of the gang- up to leave PDP moreso since he believes Rufai inviting him a founding member of PDP to a lesser party is insulting.
Is Rufai’s team visit to Buhari not a grand plan to hijack him from the APC fold using Northern ethno-religious campaign to return power to the North.?
Since Buhari is still considered a crowd puller with a Northern messianic image, the attempt to woo him may also transcend party politics using Northern interest to take power back to the North.
In spite of the Yorubanisation label hung on Tinubu as a justification for Northern solidarity, would the taciturn Buhari ignore the appointment of at least 36 political appointees by Tinubu to abandon the APC should he be swayed by cries of marginalization of the North by Tinubu? Under Tinubu, Ministries of Agriculture, Defence, Health, Police, Chief of Defence Staff and National Security Adviser,NSA are all in the hands of the North. Yet insecurity continues unabated.
Now that some political elites in the North led by El- Rufai and his new recruit,Atiku Abubakar, who he has once taken to the cleaners, have joined in the move to stop Tinubu obviously for personal reasons are mounting pressure on Buhari for his messianic image in the North, would he succumb and kill the platform that brought him to power for eight years?
Though he has declared to the contrary,would the ethno- religious sentiment of Northern superiority move him especially since some of his Ministers like Abubakar Malami who got married to his first daughter make him to abandon APC?
Another point is since El Rufai has sworn he won’t return to his vomit in PDP, is he recruiting Atiku into his SDP project?
Since ambition is like a strong wine,would Atiku be ready to use any platform to realise his life-long ambition?
Would El Rufai be able to convince the likes of Bukola Saraki,former Senate President to join the northern coalition to stop Tinubu since he has declared his interest to remain in the PDP obviously to retain his relevance in North Central politics?
Another hurdle for the El Rufai and Atiku crowd lies in the North East where the vice president, Kashim Shettima hails from.
With rising insecurity in the zone, would this be enough reason for people of the region to dump Shettima and follow Atiku?
Could same be said of Katsina and other North west states where banditry has forced Buhari to relocate from his state to Kaduna which is now relatively safe than his native Katsina?
Unlike Obasanjo in the south west whose electoral value is almost next to nothing, Buhari still holds the sway in the North West in spite of his inability to wipe out terrorism and reduce grinding poverty in the region while his reign lasted.
With Tinubu’s tenacious disruption of political followership in the South -South and to some extent the South -East, would Rufai and Atiku be able to garner same followership in the two regions especially since the APC’s presence in the two regions is improving?
With the instability in the PDP and Labour party,LP, will they be able to sink their differences and deliver bulk votes to an Atiku and Obi probable alliance?
Should reports of a secret agreement between Atiku and Obi to run on same ticket in 2027 be true, would Obi be able to rein in his Obedient followers to accept his return to PDP since it is not probable that PDP would allow itself to be swallowed by both SDP and Labour?
From the above scenarios, Buhari still holds the ace in influencing core North political behaviour as he still retains his messianic followers in the region with the highest registered voters of 48 million.
Interesting days lie ahead in political maneuvering and scheming as the race towards 2027 gets closer after the mid -term electoral session next month.