Ordinarily, opposition parties in a saner clime are supposed to come together, combine resources, mobilise members to fight the ruling government.
That is if they are all committed to change the status quo or defeat a ruling party for the good of the society
But today in Nigeria ,this is unlike what happened during the regime of former President Goodluck Jonathan.
Unlike what happened to the then ruling party, the Peoples Democratic when aggrieved party governors jumped ship to an opposition party and mobilised to defeat the ruling party, today it is the opposition party led by the leading opposition, the PDP, from the governors to elected senators and members of the House of representatives, who are practically falling over each other to join the ruling party which most of them have criticised for poor performance.
In other words, it would appear that the main opposition party has surrendered itself and developed a defeatist attitude.
This is manifested in what is happening today especially to the main opposition party with eleven states under its control.
It is curious that in spite of the decision of eleven governors of the PDP who met in Ibadan, the political capital of the South West penultimate week and pledged togetherness to rebuild the party, the contrary is the case.
Hence, it is strange to political observers that Delta state governor Sheriff Oborevwori and members of the state assembly eleven days after he pledged with his PDP counterpart in Ibadan to jettison Coalition, dumped the party for ruling party, the APC.
Few hours after, immediate past Governor Uduaghan,who allegedly opened the state treasury for former Vice President Atiku Abubakar to contest the 2023 presidential election also followed his successor into the APC.
It then means that what Oborevwori has done is what Yoruba called Oyo politics…’Bo r’owo mi o ri inu mi,demo ni mo wa.’meaning, If you see my hand you can’t see my mind,I am in Demo.
It was the saying popularized during violent otherwise called ‘Operation wetie’ that ensued as a result of the crisis between the then Action Group,AG and the Nigerian National Democratic Party,NNDP led by late Chief Samuel Ladoke Akintola,then Premier of the region.
Oborevworis action also means that the Ibadan meeting was just a pretence-some of the governors who attended the meeting have made up their mind to jump- ship irrespective of whatever resolution made and read to the press.
If the declaration of Nasarawa State Governor, Abdullahi Sule is anything to go by, two more governors and legislators in the PDP are set to join the train.
If they do,the party will become a shadow of itself.
It doesn’t matter if they joined any other party besides the ruling APC.
Also last Friday, Honourable Ikenga Imo Ugochinyere of the House of Representatives on behalf of a group which called itself,Nigeria Lawmakers Opposition Coalition,hinted that 40 legislators and additional two governors “are on the verge of defecting from the PDP”citing dissolusionment with the party’s leadership and direction.
Given today’s politician natural penchant of wanting to always be on the winning side, Ugochinyeres reason may just be an opportunity to be where the action is.
In todays politics in Nigeria, no ideology, but where their bread is buttered.
You can count on your finger tip,how many politicians have remained in same party since the return to party politics in 1998.
The internal crisis in the PDP only provided an opportunity for unprincipled politicians to jump ship to where their ambition could be realised not minding whether they are strange bed fellows.
However,the pattern of today’s defection is unique such that the ruling party is being given strong hands in states hitherto consider the pillar of opposition.
If it is political horse trading or brinksmanship, then President Tinubu must have done what other previous leaders since advent of fourth republic failed to do.
The pattern of movement especially from core – PDP states like Delta,Akwa Ibom,Edo, Rivers and Cross Rivers state portend strategic poaching of those states for 2027.
The clinching of the three Senatorial districts of Delta state by the APC is another bolster of the weakening of the PDP in the state.
In furtherance of this strategic move, poaching followers from core PDP states like Anambra, Ebonyi, it means the two states from South east and two from South South-Delta and Rivers may further strengthen Tinubus hold on the two regions thereby firmly controlling three regions in the south.
The significance of the two states…Delta and Rivers- two states with biggest financial muscle both in terms of monthly federal allocation and 13% derivation from the South South region, is also an indication that more resources would be available from the two states both to finance their -election of their governors and contribute meaningful financial resources needed to run the presidential campaign including the national and state assembly election without looking unto the center where APC holds the biggest purse string .
The saying there is no gain without pain is also applicable to the ruling APC now enjoying the fruit of the defections into its hold.
However,if the opinion of former Senate President Adolphus Wabara ,that the APC would soon face internal implosion as a result of the entrance of ambitious office holders into its midst is not a warning to be dismissed wuth a wave of hand.
Since personal interest remains the biggest motivating factor for the defections by politicians, APC,has the task of reconciling interests of new joiners with those old members who also have their eyes on elective offices in 2027.
It has a task of integrating the structures of the defectors especially in Rivers-where there is a clash already between APC and Works Minister Nyesome Wike followers from and Timpre Silva PDP and Delta state where Oborevwori and his entire cabinet and party executive have all joined the state APC as a team.
It will be recalled that internal crisis like this over structure and imposition of new comers was fundamental to the crisis which ripped apart the PDP in 2015 and paved the way for new APC to win the election.
Will the APC be able to manage the various party primaries that will accommodate the joiners from PDP especially since they have enough resources to induce members to ensure emergence of members.
Will the party be able to manage the internal intrigues and scheming within the new family?
While there is likelihood of stability in the case of Presidential primary of the APC since some of the PDP governors who have joined have already started campaigning for incumbent President Tinubu,the state and local elections remains the main focus of activity and attention.
Another point worthy of note for the in the state is the rather delicate issue of Rivers State where a state of emergency is on.
Until, the full details of the alleged meeting between President Tinubu and suspended Governor Fubara is unveiled, there is likelihood of a compromise having been struck between the duo.
This compromise may either affect the fortunes of Fubara or that of Wike who also controls the larger structure PDP in the state.
President Tinubu must weigh in the position and strength of Silva in APC,Wike and PDP and Fubara especially if he is returned to power after the six months expiration of emergency rule.
Whatever the case is the PDP has a lot to reconcile bits internal crisis which for now is being threatened by both the ambition of supporters of coalition led by Atiku and El Rufai of the SDP and the incumbent PDP governors who are being backed by elders and founding fathers of the party like former Governor Sule Lamido, former Senate President Adolphus Wabara and former BOT chair,Chief Bode George.
In all,it would appear the issue of personal ambition which is threatening the rotation of position and power in the PDP.
Will the party be able to contain and harmonize divergent interests of the Damagum led executive and those against him like Honourable Chinyere rooting for leadership to shift to North Central.
Since Atiku has declared his interest to contest on any platform in order to supplant Tinubu,it means that these varied interests may further divide the PDP and its ability to galvanize itself for the big battle ahead with 11 governors some of who are already looking elsewhere especially those of them in their first term in office.
Interesting days lie ahead of the party unless the remaining founding fathers can pull their weight and save it from internal self destruct.
Hoping to gain from a likely implosion of the APC may not be sacrosanct since leaders of the party are not oblivious of the interests of the ambitions of the new comers.