Ordinarily,Abubakar Atiku and President Bola’ Ahmed Tinubu are friends.
As friends they’ve slept on different sides of the same political bed.
They also got tutored by both same political leader and his umbrella founded by late Chief of staff Supreme headquarters,Shehu Musa Yar’Adua.
The only marked difference between Tinubu and Atiku is that while one is educated in foreign school abroad and worked in blue chip multinational concerns before he opted for partisan politics ,the other grew up in the labyrinth of civil service he joined with little education.
But since promotion and relevance in the Nigeria civil service is whom you knew and where you come from,Atiku with little education, grew up and got to high influential ladder.
He became a power broker in the Customs before he got so powerful he was eased out when his influence clashed with those in government.
He got saved by his political master the late Shehu Musa Yaradua.
For Tinubu his education helped by working in multinational oil concern catapulted him to corporate boardroom.
When he joined politics,he became a member of the Primrose,a group formed by Chief Dapo Sarumi.
The Primrose group was a partner in the late Shehu Musa Yaradua political machine the Peoples Democratic Movement,PDM.
The rest is history.
Because Atiku has his eyes on big political positions during the military rule he played along the politics of the late General Sanni Abacha who dug in after removing Interim government headed by the late Chief Earnest Shonekan.
On the contrary,Tinubu, agitated by annulment of June 12,1993 Presidential election,joined others to form National Democratic Organisation,NADECO to fight military rule.
There and then they temporarily parted ways.
But it is instructive that,operating from militant background probably made Tinubu tougher resilience as resilience could be and this trait is evident in the war of attrition between both political combatants today. It is one of the remote causes of struggle for power which both craved and worked for in different ways.
However,in their separate political journey,when things get tougher for both in 2003 and 2007 respectively they offered each other political shelther from the harsh political climate they operated under the all conquering then President Olusegun Obasanjo.
While Atiku claimed he was supplying Tinubu with strategies to survive Obasanjo sweep of then AD governors in the South West to his boss chargrin.
He became the last man standing and he fought Obasanjo to a standstill over differences in ideology and seizure of local council funds.
Perhaps,Atiku should’ve seen the resilience in Tinubu then as a sign that they may one day run for same political office,if he does he never betrayed the emotion.
However,when Tinubu completed his second term as governor in 2007,he also offered political platform of his rebranded Alliance for Democracy now Action Congress of Nigeria,ACN, to contest the Presidency in defiance of Obasanjo who kicked him out of the People’s Democratic party.
In what may pass as politics of entitlement better used as debate to curry electorate sympathy during the February presidential election,Atiku claimed in a press conference Thursday that he once offered protection to Tinubu during the 2003 take over of South West.
He however forgot to mention that the Tinubu choose to step aside for him in 2015 when he contested with Buhari for APC ticket, he did to take his time at the appropriate time.
Atiku may not even knew that ,Tinubu,who later became godfather of Lagos and South west politics actually waited to build his political empire across Nigeria.
That empire was what he used to defeat Atiku with two million votes during February 25 elections.
In other words,Tinubus stepping aside for Atikus turn to contest the primary he lost to Buhari was to pave way for him when the laters term expired.
Politics is self interest,Tinubu waited in the wings for sixteen years to launch himself.
Atiku,during those years only relied on perceived Northern hegemonic interest to become President. He failed!
As for Atiku,who today has contested the presidential seat in four electoral calendar spanning sixteen years,Tinubus achievement of Presidential seat him in only first attempt embittered him.
In other words ,his reliance on perceived Northern superiority which failed in February rattled him and the reasons for his determination to cut Tinubu to size and remove intergrity from his person through intimidation of the judiciary,mob action and denigration of the office of the President.
Atiku also ‘cried’ that contrary to what many believed, Tinubu merely offered him ACN in 2007 without the soul of the party only to surreptitiously support Umaru Yaradua, brother of their political mentor..
Yes as somebody who has been vice President for eight years,Atiku is qualified to rule Nigeria but his fortunes since 1991 had been that he had always been at political cross roads.
After the presidential primary in Jos,Atiku got his first choice when instead of him, Moshood Abiola, then presidential candidate of Social Democratic Party, SDP, picked Babagana Kingibe,a retired diplomat from same North East like him.
Yet, not done Atiku to realise his ambition, in 1999 bidded for and got the Adamawa governorship ticket of the PDP,won the election but Obasanjo drafted him into the vice presidential seat practically unsolicited.
While Obasanjo claimed he wanted to compensate political dynasty of his former deputy,the late Shehu Yaradua, Atiku who all the while had his eyes on the Presidency soon proved that Obasanjo made a tactical mistake for no sooner had he got to office that he started plotting Obasanjos fall post midway into the first term .
Could we say that Atiku is innocent of the surreptitious moves of the PDP governors led by James Onanefe Ibori of Delta state to stop Obasanjo and pitch tent with Atiku.?
The rest is also history.
Today,while Atiku in his ambition had between 2007 and 2019 changed party like diaper, the bloody nose he got from the 2019 election was a cautionary one to tame him.
But then, his self entitlement attitude made him mismanage the likes of Governor Nyesome Wike,PDPs enfant terrible who felt insulted by Atikus preference for Iyorchia Ayu, a fellow Northerner as national chairman.
He did not stop at that,he open the flank of opposition to his candidacy when he dropped Wike said to have been funding the party since it’s defeat in 2019 to pick less fancied Dr Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta state.
With the wrong assumption that the North West will throw it’s weight behind him instead of Tinubu, Atiku went to sleep and the former worked on the twelve governors from the North to support him .
An ambition curtailed by opponents deft political moves.
The twelve governors apart from Wike in the South South were the real game changer for Tinubu .
This portrays Atikus wrong reading of the core North backing him against Tinubu from South West.
What is more ,Wikes recalcitrance by bringing in four rebel governors from Oyo,Benue ,Ebonyi and Benue further dimmed Atikus chances..
Again,the loss of Peter Obi to Labour and the latter’s ethnic religious stance helped in no way to dash Atikus ambition for the fourth time.
As he spoke to the press on Thursday,it is apparent that Atiku relied more on emotions, ethnic divide to stampede the Supreme court.
The question is could he successfully convince the Supreme court that Chicago State University,Registrar who swore under oath that Tinubu was it’s student was deliberately lying.
Giving the schools explanation that reissuance of Certificate is done by Third party vendors,could this be misconstrued as lies to defend Tinubus perceived fake certificate. Could a school which proudly described it’s old student as the best in his class suddenly turn round under pressure to disown it’s claim .
Should the CSU registrar be pressurized by Atikus lawyer to admit he and the institution was wrong in admitting Tinubu indeed was their student?
Who should Atiku in this instance belief ,the CSU authorities or his lawyers who were playing pranks to earn their living off him?
Beside the crowd of lawyers who convinced him that Supreme court can reverse itself,the mob of media warriors both print and online publishers are also having a field day putting across jaundiced views,statements and concortions to reduce a purely pre- election matter to an electoral issue.
Knowing fully well that Atiku did not score beyond six million votes,is it feasible to invalidate or use public emotions to invalidate Tinubus eight million votes?
At least if he is not knowledgeable enough about law and procedures of the apex court,failure of his lawyers to convince him that CSU Registrar swearing to an oath is enough for authentication of Tinubus copy of the certificate procured from Third party vendor according to tradition is enough to prove that his lawyers are self serving.
If the Supreme Court cannot accept new evidences-assuming they were tenable, on what basis does Atiku intend to win the case?.
Also, since the Supreme court will not at this stage, invite Chicago state University to come and testify to the originality of the academic records and certificate, what proof is there to upturn verdict of the Appeal Court.
Assuming that Atikus goal is to stop Tinubu for a second term,how would he manage and contend with equally ambitious and younger elements in the PDP like former Sokoto state governor,Aminus Tambuwal, who reluctantly stepped down for him during the primaries to have the ticket at age 77.
Would he still be mentally alert and strong at 81 to give the younger ones in PDP a good fight for the ticket?.
From the above, it is apparent all the fury and noise is calculated to distract Tinubu, intimidate the judiciary and prepare enough ground for 2027 .
This however is assuming that all other things will remain equal in the rank and file of the opposition PDP on which ticket Atiku who would have clocked 81 contest for the fifth attempt.
Since twenty four hours is pretty long in politics, what is the certainty of sustained cohesiveness in the PDP.
If Atiku is unable to get traditional rulers, governors and National assembly behind him, it is doubtful if he could get the PDP ticket in 2027.
That possibility reconfirms him as Nigerias Soroye- one who saw the crown but never wore it.
This may afterall be the reason for his desperacy and fight to finish with Tinubu.
Since politics is dirty, Tinubu who appears unperturbed by developments so far may only be bidding his time to hit back .
He may not do this until after the Supreme court ruling.
That is when politics of 2027 will start for Tinubu.
If Atikus war chest has not diminished after December 6, then the nation is in for interesting times as decency being observed by Tinubu and ruling party now may be thrown to the dogs.
The nation and democracy is on trial!