Since he announced his decision to leave the All Peoples Congress (APC), March 10 this year, Nasir El Rufai, the ex governor of highly volatile Kaduna State has left no one in doubt about his determination to become the new face of opposition in the country.
That he declared his goal to unite other opposition parties to form a coalition to dislodge the ruling APC from power in 2027 is not unusual, neither is it novel in Nigeria’s history of fledgling democracy.
It is also not new that he was a part of the APC house that was built while he was governor.
Also not new is that from all his pronouncements, he has betrayed his emotion and that of his followers that his main decision was being sidelined from the ruling party since the government came on board in 2023 after he left power .
It is also very obvious that El-Rufai’s fish like many other all- weather politicians-most of them are, could not stay out of power for long.
What is new is that he has sort of come out to allege President Bola Tinubu to be the brain behind his inability to secure a job as Minister in the government he helped to bring to power,though his parry scored less vote in the presidential election in Kaduna than the main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic party (PDP).
Except for some undercurrents in the politics of the National Assembly and kaduna state, it is clear that petitions against his approval by the senate emanated from the state he ruled for eight years with ethno- religious induced violence never witnessed in the state’s history.
His traducers from Southern Kaduna,a Christain dominated part of the state had tales of woes to tell about his tainted handling of the ethno- religious violence which left them embittered till date.
Could the reduction in violence,killings and religious persecutions in the hitherto peaceful centre of Northern politics be attributable to his overtly partisan handling of the religiously induced bloodletting which robbed Kaduna of its peace during his eight years tenure.
Now that,El Rufai has beckoned to Bauchi state Governor, Bala Mohammed, the blue eyed Fulani conservative whose belief in his ethnic supremacy not amount to finding his like since politics is about interest.
Couldn’t it have been better if Rufai had been in the same boar with the petulant and arrogant Bauchi helmsman whose flair to reawakening Fulani domination of both the North and Southern Nigeria is second to none.
Perhaps if by chance El Rufai is able to rally round both the PDP,Kwankwaso led NNPP and other aggrieved members from the APC to the rainbow coaltion, then the country would’ve succeeded in reverting back to the dead politics of ideology as the new party may be made of core Northern conservatives who believe in supremacy since it is all about getting power both for themselves and back to the North conservative ruling political class.
But then ,how would the new party which would have to accommodate other parts of the country especially in the South-west and South east states like Oyo, Osun, Imo and Ebonyi state where the clamor for Southern presidency is not likely to be doused even when another Southerner is in power.
How would Abubakar Atiku convince the likes of believers in the Southern presidency in the mould of Chief Bode George and others to drop their guard?
Though the new coalition is yet come into force,it is apparent that mid term session is but a small shot away from election.
It is also not clear if Atiku has dropped his age- long pursue of the presidential seat.if he hasnt,then the likes of Mohammed,El Rufai and former Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal who had to drop his ambition in 2023 to pave way for Atiku would do same in 2027 knowing fully well that age is not on Atiku’s side.
Since ambition is like a burning cancer, 2027 will be a test of will for El Rufai and other younger elements from the North if their real goal is taking power back from the South.
This brings to question the Peter Obi burning quest to be President amid his Igbo centric posture.
Will he succumb to pressure to accept the running mate position for which he ran away from Atiku in 2023 especially in the light of pressures from Obidient supporters who may dump him should they insist on his representing their interests.
This scenario itself will depend on the sustenance of his followership by the youths across the country in the light of youth oriented programmes implemented by the Tinubu led government. It is important to note that no government would allow itself to be defeated by any opposition, however strong.
With the strong political tactics of the ruling government, especially its in- road to the South East and South South parts of the country where opposition frontline states like Edo, Delta, Rivers are being ruptured with defections to the ruling party from the PDP, the options and race for 2027 appear not settled especially for the opposition.
Today, APC with 21 states followed by PDP 12 states and one state each for Labour, NNPP and APGA, the odds favour the ruling APC especially considering the fact that governors exert much influence in winning elections.
Also since politics is a game of numbers, the number of states under the control of a ruling party is an important factor .
In this case, the lack of cohesion in the main opposition party is another factor that may work in favour of the APC.
As for now,El Rufai still has the chance to pull his influence outside his sharply divided Kaduna state and rally other core Northern states to join him in the Social Democratic Party, SDP.
For the new face of opposition to bite, the personal interests of Atiku, El Rufai, Shekarau and Obi have to be sacrificed if the SDP is to repeat the performance of the APC in 2015.
This is also dependent on parties in the coalition led by PDP to retain its strength and put its house in order in the seven states under its control.
Since 24 hours is long in politics, both the emerging opposition and even the ruling party in power have 21 months to either consolidate their position or move forward to get the territories considering the complex political set up of the country.
As for President Tinubu,he still has time to ensure his programmes bring out smiles to the faces of Nigerians who have borne the pains of the harsh economic policies rolled out to reposition the country.
Hope is only sustained by the people when convincing signs appear in the polity as to an improvement in living conditions.
The Nation waits!